Echoes of the Rainbow is definitely not a small, artsy movie. It’s made even more money than Bodyguards and Assassins.

As my should win indicates, Wang Xueqi deserves to take it this year for the commanding performance. Simon was good, but I hope he takes it for a better movie.

As for the jury, each award is voted by a different group of professionals. For example, the director’s guild gets to vote for several awards, and their vote would only take up a percentage of the the results. It’s quite complicated, but I don’t know about such a specific system. I think there should just be a committee that votes for all the awards, but that’s just me.

YTSL,

Even if At the End of Daybreak doesn’t have Kara Hui’s best performance, I still think it’s a damn good one.

Re the latter: I just don’t believe that END OF THE END OF DAYBREAK is Kara Hui Ying Hung’s best performance ever — like she said it was at the premiere of the movie. I’ve seen her in so much better, only they were in less “artsy” movies. (Little rant: why can’t actresses — and here I look to at you, Maggie Cheung — give respect to their work in action movies and comedies along with art house dramas? I know that re certain critics but even those who work on those movies?! :()

Also, re best director: yes, I’d like John Woo to win that too — Red Cliff II is the best John Woo film in years.

PS: I’m still really unclear who exactly votes for these things so it’s hard for me to read the jury.

It’s fairly well-known that Teddy Chan left the set and Andrew Lau took over for a while (spin control says Chan had a relapse of his production, rumors say otherwise), but I’ll bet Chan wouldn’t be the only one onstage if he wins.

Zhang Jingchu has no chance of winning - the film wasn’t well-received as the first Tin Shui Wai film, and it got overlooked by audiences as well. Despite weak box office, Kara Hui has the steam from the other awards, and Sandra Ng has popular opinion behind her.

My crystal ball says:
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Ye - Accident
Best Supporting Actor: Nicholas Tse - Bodyguards
Best Actress: Kara Hui - At the End of Daybreak
Best Actor: Wang Xueqi - Bodyguards and Assassins
Best Director & Best Film: Teddy Chan - Bodyguards

Vicki Zhao has no place in this competition. Among all, RED CLIFF is the only film I’ve seen and Ms.Zhao made no more than a cameo. As an adoring princess, Vicki is a few years too mature for the role and the script hasn’t helped her.

While the supporting categories will be no-brainer wins, competitions among two leading categories will be red-hot. Both Zhang Jingchu and Sandra Ng have strong fanbases and enough firepower to pull the legs of Kara Hui, who was in fact the very first winner of this category. My favourite would be Ms.Zhang, whose dynamic range has been proven successful in previous works.

Sadly, this nomination is her most unfavourable after all. She’s competing against Ng and Hui, veterans years ahead of her. She’s also competing with Bau Hei-Jing, her predecessor of the “Tin Shui Wai” series who had won the award last year (this has yet to be her most unfortunate and unfavourable disadvantage). In hindsight, she may as well competing with her mainland predecessors, Zhang Ziyi and Zhou Xun, who proved that mainland actresses have a commanding post in HK cinema. I loved this actress, but the stars don’t seem too favourable to her.

Simon Yam, scoring two nominations, has yet to compete with Wang Xueqi. Yam could be in the same boat with his NIGHT AND FOG partner, sailing behind, but it’s rather hard to say because his career success and fanbase will make up for Wang’s lead. If anything, ECHOES could bring Yam the trophy he deserves.

Problems with Teddy Chan’s winnings - which is pretty obvious unless John Woo can cling on his lukewarm RED CLIFF reception over a year ago - would be that Chan didn’t direct the entire movie. Peter Chan was rumoured to be helping Teddy on the directing process. This will get interesting if in fact Teddy scored two trophies home, debates will certainly follow.

Speaking of Simon Yam, it’s too bad he’s going to get bested by Wang Xueqi (who totally deserved the award). I really thought this was going to be the year the HKFA gives him an award for toiling all those years in junk like DON’T STOP MY CRAZY LOVE FOR YOU. Maybe next year.

Really appreciate the degree of difficulty for the WRITTEN BY script. Too bad it’ll have to be satisfied with the nomination.

The reason Li Yichun is getting raves for her performance is because of her background. Going in, you have low expectations because she’s just the winner of Super Girl. So, when the singing contest winner comes up with a decent acting performance, most people are left thinking to themselves: “Hey, she wasn’t half bad.” It makes it seem like it was better than what it really was.