April 17th, 2010
Hong Kong Film Awards 2010 Predictions
Before we get rolling on the live blog for the Hong Kong Film Awards. You can look here for the full nomination list. These are my predictions:
Best New Director:
Will Win: Cheung King-Wai (KJ)
Should Win: Cheung King-Wai (KJ)
My take: Technically, this is not Cheung’s first film (that would be the excellent All’s Well With the World), but since the rules are for directors under the age of 40 rather than a director’s first film, that would make him qualify. That’s all the better, since he certainly deserves it for KJ.
Best Asian Film:
Will Win: Departures (Japan)
Should Win: City of Life and Death (China)
My take: Departures was very well-regarded here in Hong Kong, and word-of-mouth even got it to become a box office hit. Besides, the first Asian film in years to win a Best Foreign Film Oscar to not win Best Asian Film here would just be embarrassing. However, don’t be surprised if the committee ends up giving face to any of the China nominees, and I would only be happy if that winner is City of Life and Death.
Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Storm Warriors
My take: I think this may be a case where the committee will end up choosing the better film over the film with the better effects. Storm Warriors may have sucked, but its visual effects definitely sets a new standard for Hong Kong cinema.
Best Sound Design
Will Win: Bodyguards and Assassins or KJ
Should Win: Red Cliff II
My Take: I’ve seen all of these films on the big screen, and only KJ was entirely shot on live sound recording. The rest featured the usual awkward post-production dubbing and overdone sound effects. KJ may follow its lead at the Golden Horse Awards and win in this category for the music, or Bodyguards may win for prestige. But the bigger budget, the better, and Red Cliff II probably deserves the award here for consistency.
Best Original Song
Will Win: Echoes of the Rainbow
Should Win: Echoes of the Rainbow
My take: It’s a fine song, and it plays a big role in the film. Plus, the film the sleeper hit of the year.
Best Original Score
Will Win: Red Cliff II
Should Win: Vengeance
My Take: Red Cliff won last year, so there’s little reason for it to not repeat the success, though Lo Tayu’s score for Vengeance was the most distinct one out of them all.
Best Action Design
Will Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
My Take: This win is purely by default, since the action in the five nominated films were all just so-so. Then again, Donnie’s presence on 14 Blades may help, but its action was a real ho-hum effort, especially for a Donnie film. They really should’ve nominated Kung Fu Chef.
Best Costume Design and Make-up
Will Win: Red Cliff II
Should Win: Red Cliff II
My Take: Red Cliff won this category last year, so again, don’t see much reason for it not winning this year, even though they’re going up against a Yonfan movie this year.
Best Art Direction
Will Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
My Take: They rebuilt an entire district of Hong Kong in a film studio. ’nuff said.
Best Editing
Will Win: KJ or Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: KJ or Red Cliff II
My Take: KJ’s editing was easily one of the best things about the film, and this would be the win that’s most well-deserved. However, Having a new editor on Red Cliff II made all the difference in the world from the draggy first installment, and Bodyguards and Assassins may pick this up out of prestige.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Arthur Wong - Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Chin Ting-Chang - Prince of Tears
My Take: Arthur Wong seems to take this award every time he’s nominated, and he’ll probably win for the likely Best Picture winner, just because he’s Arthur Wong. I didn’t care for Prince of Tears, but I will not deny that it was a damn pretty-looking film. I hope dearly that Arthur Wong doesn’t return next year for Here Comes Fortune.
Best New Artist
Will Win: Buzz Chung - Echoes of the Rainbow
Should Win: Aarif Lee - Echoes of the Rainbow
My Take: The audience opinion leans heavily towards the younger Echoes actor, while I picked Aarif out of default. Buzz was too annoying for my taste.
Best Screenplay
Will Win: Echoes of the Rainbow
Should Win: Everything else
My Take: As mentioned, Echoes is going to easily take this one out of popular opinion, but it’s in my opinion the least deserving out of the five. Accident had a killer idea and went with it until its contrived finale, Overheard was a fine commercial script that again fell apart at the third act, Bodyguards and Assassins is the most solid out of the five and was easily the favorite until Echoes won at Berlin (somehow Europeans appreciating something can validate previously inferior things here in Hong Kong), and Written By is easily the most complex script out of the five, but the committee don’t care for that kind of cerebral stuff.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Li Yuchun - Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Vicki Zhao - Red Cliff II or Michelle Ye - Accident
My Take: Bodyguards will win this round because Echoes isn’t nominated, and Li is the only female performance people rave about in the film (for what I have no idea). And I only choose Vicki Zhao as should win because the LoveHKFilm Award committee has voted so. I thought Michelle Ye’s intensity in Accident complemented Louis Koo’s cold personality in the film well.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Nicholas Tse - Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Nicholas Tse - Bodyguards and Assassins
My Take: This is a Nicholas Tse performance we’ve never seen before, and the result is THE performance to beat this year. Surely some kind of justice for him after Nick Cheung stole all the thunder for Beast Stalkers.
Best Actress
Will Win: Kara Hui - At the End of Daybreak or Sandra Ng - Echoes of the Rainbow
Should Win: Zhang Jingchu - Night and Fog
My Take: Kara Hui has long been a favorite, and I would be happy if she wins for her powerful performance. On the other hand, Sandra Ng has been picking up steam because of the Echoes of the Rainbow fever sweeping the city, so I wouldn’t be surprised if she picks up some votes. My favorite, however, remains Zhang Jingchu, who not only have to handle the tough role of the abused wife in Night and Fog, but also had to perform the entire role in Cantonese. It’s definitely an overlooked effort that deserves recognition.
Best Actor
Will Win: Wang Xueqi - Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: Wang Xueqi - Bodyguards And Assassins
My Take: The only main cast the least physically involved with the action part of the film ends up being a lead in an ensemble cast of more than ten characters. Wang has been building steam since the film came out, and his win should be no surprise - or disappointment - to anyone. Unless you’re an adamant fan of Echoes of the Rainbow and believe it should win everything.
Best Director
Will Win: Teddy Chan - Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: John Woo - Red Cliff II
My Take: Teddy Chan will likely be recognize for his ten-year journey in bringing this film to the big screen, but John Woo deserves recognition for pulling off the most expensive Asian film ever made. Like Peter Jackson, Woo should be recognized this year for his effort on the two-part film, but its Lunar New Year slot last year means people probably have already forgotten it. Alex Law was rightfully excluded for Echoes of the Rainbow because the directing was one of the film’s major problems, while Soi Cheang and Cheung King-Wai should’ve been in this list.
Best Film
Will Win: Bodyguards and Assassins
Should Win: KJ
My Take: KJ is a very strong character portrait that happens to be a documentary. It’s a testament to not just documentary filmmaking, but to the art of filmmaking and storytelling. However, Hong Kong cinema is a commercial industry, and Bodyguards and Assassins is an excellent commercial film that isn’t perfect, but mostly delivers. I wouldn’t be upset if it won, but I’d know that it still isn’t the best film of the year.
We’ll see how I do come Sunday night. What are some of your picks? Share in the comments section!
April 17th, 2010 at 4:11 am
I agree with you about Zhang Jingchu in NIGHT AND FOG. If you don’t buy her in that part, then the film just becomes an hour and a half lecture about domestic violence. The film is fine but it could have been a bit more nuanced in its storytelling. Would have been better if it did a better job of showing the transformation of Simon Yam’s character from stand-up guy to crazy, deluded, jealous creep.
Speaking of Simon Yam, it’s too bad he’s going to get bested by Wang Xueqi (who totally deserved the award). I really thought this was going to be the year the HKFA gives him an award for toiling all those years in junk like DON’T STOP MY CRAZY LOVE FOR YOU. Maybe next year.
Really appreciate the degree of difficulty for the WRITTEN BY script. Too bad it’ll have to be satisfied with the nomination.
The reason Li Yichun is getting raves for her performance is because of her background. Going in, you have low expectations because she’s just the winner of Super Girl. So, when the singing contest winner comes up with a decent acting performance, most people are left thinking to themselves: “Hey, she wasn’t half bad.” It makes it seem like it was better than what it really was.
April 17th, 2010 at 8:33 am
Earlier predictions were similar. Not much has changed for the major categories, except Simon Yam has two nominations and the actor is overdue for the award.
My crystal ball says:
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Ye - Accident
Best Supporting Actor: Nicholas Tse - Bodyguards
Best Actress: Kara Hui - At the End of Daybreak
Best Actor: Wang Xueqi - Bodyguards and Assassins
Best Director & Best Film: Teddy Chan - Bodyguards
Vicki Zhao has no place in this competition. Among all, RED CLIFF is the only film I’ve seen and Ms.Zhao made no more than a cameo. As an adoring princess, Vicki is a few years too mature for the role and the script hasn’t helped her.
While the supporting categories will be no-brainer wins, competitions among two leading categories will be red-hot. Both Zhang Jingchu and Sandra Ng have strong fanbases and enough firepower to pull the legs of Kara Hui, who was in fact the very first winner of this category. My favourite would be Ms.Zhang, whose dynamic range has been proven successful in previous works.
Sadly, this nomination is her most unfavourable after all. She’s competing against Ng and Hui, veterans years ahead of her. She’s also competing with Bau Hei-Jing, her predecessor of the “Tin Shui Wai” series who had won the award last year (this has yet to be her most unfortunate and unfavourable disadvantage). In hindsight, she may as well competing with her mainland predecessors, Zhang Ziyi and Zhou Xun, who proved that mainland actresses have a commanding post in HK cinema. I loved this actress, but the stars don’t seem too favourable to her.
Simon Yam, scoring two nominations, has yet to compete with Wang Xueqi. Yam could be in the same boat with his NIGHT AND FOG partner, sailing behind, but it’s rather hard to say because his career success and fanbase will make up for Wang’s lead. If anything, ECHOES could bring Yam the trophy he deserves.
Problems with Teddy Chan’s winnings - which is pretty obvious unless John Woo can cling on his lukewarm RED CLIFF reception over a year ago - would be that Chan didn’t direct the entire movie. Peter Chan was rumoured to be helping Teddy on the directing process. This will get interesting if in fact Teddy scored two trophies home, debates will certainly follow.
April 17th, 2010 at 11:39 am
ECHOES winning everything it’s nominated for seems to be the popular opinion, even within the industry, so don’t be surprised if Simon ends up winning for ECHOES.
It’s fairly well-known that Teddy Chan left the set and Andrew Lau took over for a while (spin control says Chan had a relapse of his production, rumors say otherwise), but I’ll bet Chan wouldn’t be the only one onstage if he wins.
Zhang Jingchu has no chance of winning - the film wasn’t well-received as the first Tin Shui Wai film, and it got overlooked by audiences as well. Despite weak box office, Kara Hui has the steam from the other awards, and Sandra Ng has popular opinion behind her.
April 18th, 2010 at 1:19 am
I’m so rooting for Simon Yam this year–it’s too bad he got nominated for two films, so that might have split the vote. Will sentiment for his long and, um, distinguished career win out over the Bodyguards and Assassins juggernaut? Although Echoes of the Rainbow seems to have a juggernaut of its own– Guess it will depend on whether voters favor the big impressive blockbuster or the small sentimental artsy movie.
PS: I’m still really unclear who exactly votes for these things so it’s hard for me to read the jury.
April 18th, 2010 at 10:32 am
Nice post! And, among other things, agree with you re Best New Artist and definitely with the “should win” choice for Best Actress.
Re the latter: I just don’t believe that END OF THE END OF DAYBREAK is Kara Hui Ying Hung’s best performance ever — like she said it was at the premiere of the movie. I’ve seen her in so much better, only they were in less “artsy” movies. (Little rant: why can’t actresses — and here I look to at you, Maggie Cheung — give respect to their work in action movies and comedies along with art house dramas? I know that re certain critics but even those who work on those movies?! :()
Also, re best director: yes, I’d like John Woo to win that too — Red Cliff II is the best John Woo film in years.
April 18th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Valerie,
Echoes of the Rainbow is definitely not a small, artsy movie. It’s made even more money than Bodyguards and Assassins.
As my should win indicates, Wang Xueqi deserves to take it this year for the commanding performance. Simon was good, but I hope he takes it for a better movie.
As for the jury, each award is voted by a different group of professionals. For example, the director’s guild gets to vote for several awards, and their vote would only take up a percentage of the the results. It’s quite complicated, but I don’t know about such a specific system. I think there should just be a committee that votes for all the awards, but that’s just me.
YTSL,
Even if At the End of Daybreak doesn’t have Kara Hui’s best performance, I still think it’s a damn good one.